Srinagar, Jan 22: A strong Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir from Thursday afternoon, with a high probability of widespread snowfall across Kashmir plains and rainfall across Jammu division, according to Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster.

The system is expected to begin impacting the higher reaches of North Kashmir from this afternoon, while most parts of the Union Territory may come under its influence by night hours.

Forecasts indicate a very high likelihood of snowfall across Kashmir plains, along with snowfall in parts of Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Kathua. While the system is expected to weaken within 24 hours, snowfall intensity during this period may remain high due to strong moisture availability.

The peak impact period is expected from tonight through late afternoon on January 23, though rain and snow may continue in some areas till the morning of January 24.

Snow accumulation in plains is expected to depend on snow density.Under dry snow conditions, accumulation may range from 4 inches to as much as 2 feet, with higher totals expected near the Pir Panjal belt, particularly Shopian district. Under wet snow conditions, snowfall may range between 3 inches and 1.5 feet. Higher reaches could receive 2 to 4 feet of fresh snow.

Across Jammu plains, moderate to heavy rainfall is likely, and the system may also be accompanied by strong wind gusts.

The spell may lead to travel disruptions on January 23, impacting road connectivity, flights and train services in parts of the region.

Following the system, Jammu and Kashmir is likely to witness a fresh cold wave, with prolonged cold conditions expected to persist through the remainder of January.